Statistical

BETA.DIST Formula

Returns the beta distribution, either as a cumulative distribution function or probability density function. The beta distribution is defined on the interval [0,1] (or optionally [A,B]) and is used for modeling probabilities, proportions, and percentages. It is fundamental to Bayesian statistics and is used in project management (PERT estimates) and A/B testing analysis.

Syntax

BETA.DIST(x, alpha, beta, cumulative, [A], [B])
ParameterDescription
x Parameter of the BETA.DIST function.
alpha Parameter of the BETA.DIST function.
beta Parameter of the BETA.DIST function.
cumulative Parameter of the BETA.DIST function.
[A] (Optional.) Parameter of the BETA.DIST function.
[B] (Optional.) Parameter of the BETA.DIST function.
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Examples

Bayesian probability estimate

Formula
=BETA.DIST(0.3, 5, 15, TRUE)
Returns ~0.7216. After observing 4 successes and 14 failures (prior + data), there is about a 72% probability that the true conversion rate is 0.3 or lower.

PERT project timeline

Formula
=BETA.DIST(12, 2, 3, TRUE, 8, 20)
Returns ~0.4069. In a PERT analysis with optimistic=8 and pessimistic=20 days, there is about a 41% chance of completing within 12 days.

PDF of a proportion

Formula
=BETA.DIST(0.5, 2, 5, FALSE)
Returns ~1.875. The probability density at p=0.5 when the beta parameters are alpha=2, beta=5. The peak of this distribution is around 0.2.

Common Errors

#NUM!

x must be between A and B (default 0 and 1). Alpha and beta must be positive. If A >= B, this error occurs.

#VALUE!

Occurs when arguments are non-numeric.

Tips

Alpha and beta interpretation

Think of alpha as 'number of successes + 1' and beta as 'number of failures + 1' in a Bayesian context. Higher values mean more data and a tighter distribution.

Optional bounds A and B

By default the beta distribution covers [0,1]. Set A and B to rescale it to any interval, useful for PERT estimates and bounded physical quantities.

A/B testing application

After an A/B test with s successes and f failures, the posterior distribution of the true rate is Beta(s+1, f+1). Use BETA.DIST to compute probabilities about that rate.

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