Statistical

BINOM.DIST Formula

Returns the binomial distribution probability for a specified number of successes in a fixed number of independent trials, each with the same probability of success. Use it for pass/fail scenarios like the probability of getting a certain number of heads in coin flips, defective items in a batch, or correct answers on a multiple-choice test.

Syntax

BINOM.DIST(successes, trials, prob, cumulative)
ParameterDescription
successes Parameter of the BINOM.DIST function.
trials Parameter of the BINOM.DIST function.
prob Parameter of the BINOM.DIST function.
cumulative Parameter of the BINOM.DIST function.
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Examples

Exactly 7 heads in 10 coin flips

Formula
=BINOM.DIST(7, 10, 0.5, FALSE)
Returns ~0.1172. There is about an 11.7% chance of getting exactly 7 heads in 10 fair coin flips.

At most 2 defective items in batch of 20

Formula
=BINOM.DIST(2, 20, 0.05, TRUE)
Returns ~0.9245. If 5% of items are defective, there is a 92.5% chance of finding 2 or fewer defective items in a sample of 20.

Probability of passing a quiz by guessing

Formula
=BINOM.DIST(6, 10, 0.25, TRUE)
Returns ~0.9965. On a 10-question quiz with 4 choices each, the probability of guessing 6 or fewer correctly is about 99.7% — passing by luck alone is very unlikely.

Common Errors

#NUM!

Number_s must be between 0 and trials, trials must be non-negative, and probability_s must be between 0 and 1.

#VALUE!

Occurs if any argument is non-numeric text.

Tips

FALSE for exact, TRUE for cumulative

Use cumulative=FALSE for 'exactly k successes' and TRUE for 'k or fewer successes'. For 'more than k', use =1 - BINOM.DIST(k, n, p, TRUE).

Assumes independent trials

Each trial must be independent with the same probability. If you are sampling without replacement from a small population, use HYPGEOM.DIST instead.

Expected value shortcut

The expected number of successes is simply n * p. For 100 trials with p=0.3, expect about 30 successes on average.

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