Statistical

NEGBINOMDIST Formula

Returns the negative binomial distribution probability. This is the legacy compatibility version of NEGBINOM.DIST (always returns the PMF, not cumulative). It calculates the probability of a specified number of failures occurring before a target number of successes.

Syntax

NEGBINOMDIST(failures, successes, prob)
ParameterDescription
failures Parameter of the NEGBINOMDIST function.
successes Parameter of the NEGBINOMDIST function.
prob Parameter of the NEGBINOMDIST function.
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Examples

2 bad batches before 4 good ones

Formula
=NEGBINOMDIST(2, 4, 0.8)
Returns ~0.1966. With an 80% batch success rate, there is about a 19.7% chance of getting exactly 2 bad batches before producing 4 good ones.

5 misses before first hit

Formula
=NEGBINOMDIST(5, 1, 0.1)
Returns ~0.0590. With a 10% hit rate, there is about a 5.9% chance of exactly 5 misses before the first hit.

0 failures before 3 successes

Formula
=NEGBINOMDIST(0, 3, 0.7)
Returns ~0.343. The probability of three consecutive successes with no failures is 0.7^3 = 0.343.

Common Errors

#NUM!

Number_f must be >= 0, number_s must be >= 1, and probability must be between 0 and 1 exclusive of 0.

#VALUE!

Occurs when arguments are non-numeric.

Tips

No cumulative option

NEGBINOMDIST always returns the point probability (PMF). For cumulative probabilities, use NEGBINOM.DIST with cumulative=TRUE.

Use NEGBINOM.DIST instead

This is the compatibility version. Prefer NEGBINOM.DIST in new spreadsheets for the cumulative option and consistency.

Expected failures

The expected number of failures before achieving s successes is s*(1-p)/p. For s=5 and p=0.4, expect 5*0.6/0.4 = 7.5 failures on average.

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